{"id":2741,"date":"2021-08-16T13:23:33","date_gmt":"2021-08-16T11:23:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.inst-sim.com\/3\/?p=2741"},"modified":"2021-08-16T13:23:33","modified_gmt":"2021-08-16T11:23:33","slug":"collided-with-china-yunhai-1-02","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inst-sim.com\/3\/satellites\/collided-with-china-yunhai-1-02\/","title":{"rendered":"\u062d\u0648\u0627\u062f\u062b \u0641\u0636\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629: \u0647\u0644 \u0627\u0635\u0637\u062f\u0645 \u062d\u0637\u0627\u0645 \u0635\u0627\u0631\u0648\u062e \u0623\u0648\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0628\u0642\u0645\u0631 \u0635\u064a\u0646\u064a\u061f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0623\u0639\u0644\u0646 \u062c\u0648\u0646\u0627\u062b\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0627\u0643\u062f\u0648\u064a\u0644 Jonathan McDowell \u060c \u062e\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0636\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u060c \u0639\u0644\u064a \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u062a\u0648\u064a\u062a\u0631 Twitter<\/a> \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b \u0643\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u062c Space-Track \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645 (15 \u0623\u063a\u0633\u0637\u0633 2021 \u0645) \u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0636\u0627\u0626\u064a object 48078, 1996-051Q \u0623\u0646\u0647 “\u0627\u0635\u0637\u062f\u0645 \u0628\u0642\u0645\u0631 \u0635\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a Collided with satellite”.<\/p>\n

\n

\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0646\u0648\u0639 \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0625\u062f\u062e\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0642\u0627\u062a – \u0644\u0645 \u0623\u0631 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0642 \u0644\u0623\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0628\u0644. \u0648\u0644\u0646\u0644\u0642 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u0642\u0631\u0628 \u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644\u0627\u064b:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Space-Track catalog updated today with a note for object 48078, 1996-051Q: “Collided with satellite”.<\/p>\n

This is a new kind of comment entry – haven’t seen such a comment for any other satellites before. Let’s look a bit closer:<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0633\u0645 48078 \u0647\u0648 \u062c\u0633\u0645 \u0644\u062d\u0637\u0627\u0645 \u0635\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0635\u0627\u0631\u0648\u062e \u0632\u064a\u0646\u064a\u062a Zenit-2 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u0623\u0637\u0644\u0642 \u0642\u0645\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0633\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a Tselina-2 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0628\u062a\u0645\u0628\u0631 1996 \u0645. \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u064a 1997 \u0648 2021 \u060c \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0639\u0642\u0628 8 \u0642\u0637\u0639 \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u0637\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0627\u0631\u0648\u062e. \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u060c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0645\u062a \u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0647 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u062c \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633 2021 \u0645\u060c \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u0627\u0635\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 single element set \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u0628\u0629 16 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633 2021 \u0645.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

48078 is a small debris object from the Zenit-2 rocket that launched a Tselina-2 electronic spy sat in Sep 1996. Between 1997 and 2021, 8 debris objects were tracked from the rocket. This one, added to the catalog in Mar 2021, has only a single element set, epoch 2021 Mar 16<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\u064a\u0642\u0648\u0644 \u062c\u0648\u0646\u0627\u062b\u0627\u0646 : \u0623\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0645 \u0631\u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0631\u0635\u062f\u0648\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0635\u0637\u062f\u0645\u062a \u0628\u0634\u064a\u0621 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 Orbital Data . \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0637\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0642\u062f \u062d\u062f\u062b \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u0642\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0627\u0631 epoch of the orbit . \u0645\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0623\u0635\u0627\u0628\u061f<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I conclude that they probably only spotted in tin the data after it collided with something and that’s why there’s only one set of orbital data. So the collision probably happened shortly after the epoch of the orbit. What did it hit?<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0634\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d \u0647\u0648 Yunhai-1-02 \u060c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0641\u0643\u0643 \u064a\u0648\u0645 18 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633 \u0644\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0627\u0628 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0648\u0641\u0629. \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0647\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0633\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u062d\u0648\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The obvious candidate is Yunhai-1-02, which broke up on Mar 18 for unknown reasons. So it will be interesting to compare the orbits of the objects around then<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644 \u060c \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639 \u0644\u0640 TLEs \u064a\u064f\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0623\u0646 Yunhai 1-02 (44547) \u0648\u0642\u0637\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0637\u0627\u0645 1996-051Q (48078) \u0645\u0631\u0648\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0643\u064a\u0644\u0648\u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0628\u0639\u0636\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0639\u0636 (\u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0636\u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0646 TLEs) \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0639\u0629 0741 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u064a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a \u064a\u0648\u0645 18 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633 \u060c \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0636\u0628\u0637 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0628\u0644\u063a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0631\u0628 18 \u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0642\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0636\u0627\u0621 18SPCS \u0639\u0646 \u062a\u0641\u0643\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u0631 Yunhai (\u062a\u0639\u0642\u064a\u0628: \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u062f \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0646 \u0639\u0646 \u062a\u0641\u0643\u0643\u0647 \u0625\u0644\u064a 21 \u0642\u0637\u0639\u0629).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

And indeed, a quick analysis of the TLEs show that Yunhai 1-02 (44547) and debris object 1996-051Q (48078) passed within 1 km of each other (so within the uncertainty of the TLEs) at 0741 UTC Mar 18, exactly when 18SPCS reports Yunhai broke up.<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0645 \u0641\u0647\u0631\u0633\u0629 37 \u0642\u0637\u0639\u0629 \u062d\u0637\u0627\u0645 (\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0636\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629) \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0643\u0643 – \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u064a\u062f. \u064a\u0628\u062f\u0648 \u0623\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0635\u0637\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u062f\u0627\u0631\u064a orbital collision \u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a \u0645\u0624\u0643\u062f \u0645\u0646\u0630 \u0639\u0642\u062f.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

37 debris objects (green) have been cataloged so far from the breakup – there are likely to be more. This looks to be the first major confirmed orbital collision in a decade.<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\u0648\u0645\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u060c \u064a\u0628\u062f\u0648 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a Yunhai \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0632\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0642\u0627\u062f\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u064a\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062f\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 Orbit Adjustments (\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629) \u060c \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0637\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u0645 \u064a\u0643\u0646 \u0643\u0627\u0631\u062b\u064a\u064b\u0627\u061f<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Nevertheless it appears that the Yunhai satellite is still under control and able to make orbit adjustments (blue dots) so the collision was not catastrophic?<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u060c \u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644 \u0633\u0643\u0648\u062a \u062a\u064a\u0644\u064a Scott Tilley \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0637 \u0625\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0648 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0627\u064a\u0648 2021 \u0645.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Also, @coastal8049 Scott Tilley continued to pick up radio signals from the sat in May<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\u0648\u0646\u0642\u0644 \u0639\u0646 \u0633\u0643\u0648\u062a \u062a\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0634\u0648\u0631\u0647: \u064a\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u0631 YUNHAI 1-02 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0627\u0645\u0636 \u0625\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0637\u0627\u0642 \u0631\u0628\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0642\u0648\u0644 “\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0631 \u0648\u0641\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a \u0641\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u062f \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631”.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Scott Tilley: The mysterious YUNHAI 1-02 continues to send wide band data perhaps saying “reports of my death are greatly exaggerated”<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635<\/span><\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n